This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entrances at that $25k decoration, then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win will be gearing a guillotine. Other than that, I think we have a fairly safe win here using Roberts and that is precisely what I am looking for. I need the safer wins in cash and that I can worry about who’s going to score the greatest in GPPs. I think we can eliminate him at the GPPs in his price because when he sets up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win 25k. It will help us win in money games though and I would be surprised if he had a low scoring win here. I believe he’s good for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with this in my cash lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP play of the week and he has the greatest ITD odds on the card at -222. This is a setup struggle for him to get a knockout and I believe that is quite likely going to take place in the very first round. That should put Hardy over 100 things and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be one of my best plays of this week, but he is GPP just for me. We can not trust him sufficient for cash games, so that is the reason why I like Roberts more in that arrangement. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they both win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and even with higher ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he gets the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that is too good for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they are released. We get Teixeira here for 400 less costly than Cutelaba and he’s favored to get the win. In addition, I believe he can win in the 1st round with a score and submission over 90 points. That would give him a fantastic chance at being to the perfect lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of the struggle in GPPs because I don’t expect it to move all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is exactly what I enjoy the most and we have to own»underdogs» within our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I believe that the clear path to victory for Glover is on the floor and that is what I anticipate his game must be. I like him to find a submission win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be among my greatest owned underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a solid fade too… However, I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and I will have zero lineups including her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling in her best interest against Jandiroba and I think she uses her wrestling in shield to attempt and keep this fight on the feet. All the danger is on the floor in this matchup and Carla has the better boxing of the two. I believe she could win a 30-27 striking decision but won’t score highly, and I would guess it sets up around ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to reduce it at $8.2k so I simply don’t see the way she ends up about the $25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that’s why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83u (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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